Generated Title: Rivian's "Beat": Just a Dead Cat Bounce in a Dying Market?
Okay, Rivian "beat" expectations? Give me a freaking break. Let's be real, analysts' expectations these days are so low, a blindfolded monkey throwing darts could probably "beat" them. So, yeah, Rivian (RIVN) stock jumped after hours. Big deal.
The "Good" News (and Why It's Bullshit)
They lost less money than expected – $0.65 per share instead of $0.72. Revenue surged. Gross profit exceeded expectations. Cue the confetti and champagne, right? Wrong. This is like celebrating a guy who only got stabbed five times instead of six. It's still a stabbing!
And this "major boost" from the VW joint venture? How long is that sugar rush gonna last? What happens when VW realizes they're basically throwing good money after bad? I mean, seriously, $5.8 billion is a lot of cash. What are the "certain milestones" they have to meet to get that cash? Are they realistic? Or is VW just trying to look good for their woke investors? According to a recent report, Rivian beat Wall Street’s Q3 expectations and maintained guidance.
It says that Rivian ended Q3 with $7.7 billion in liquidity. That sounds like a lot, offcourse. But burning cash at the rate they are, how long will that last? A year? Two? And then what? Another round of layoffs? More dilution for shareholders?
Speaking of shareholders, those Wall Street analysts have a "Hold" consensus rating. That's analyst speak for "we don't want to tell you to sell because we don't want to upset our clients, but seriously, get out while you still can." The average price target implies a measly 9.5% upside. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement, is it?
I'm sitting here wondering, if I had a spare 15 billion dollars, would I buy Rivian? Hell no. I'd buy a small Pacific island and declare myself king. At least that way, I'd get some tangible benefits, like coconuts and sunshine.
The R2 Hype Train (Choo-Choo to Nowhere?)
Oh, and the R2 is "on track" for the first half of 2026. Sure, it is. Remember when Tesla was "on track" to deliver the Cybertruck in 2021? How'd that work out? "No anticipated delays due to issues related to China-based chip supplier Nexperia or concerns over rare earth minerals." They expect us to believe that? In this global political climate?
This R2 is supposed to appeal to a "much wider audience" because it's cheaper. Yeah, because everyone's just dying to spend $45,000 on an EV from a company that might not even be around in five years.
And about that $7,500 federal EV tax credit...gone. Poof. Just like that. So, are we really supposed to believe that people are still rushing out to buy Rivians?
The Elephant in the Showroom: The EV Market
Let's not forget the bigger picture: the entire EV market is slowing down. Demand is softening. People are realizing that EVs aren't the magic bullet they were promised to be. Range anxiety is real. Charging infrastructure is still a joke. And the cost of replacing a battery pack is enough to make you weep.
Rivian's "differentiator" is their "new zonal architecture." Okay, so they figured out how to make their cars cheaper to build. Great. But does that make them better cars? Does it make them more desirable? Or does it just mean they're cutting corners to stay afloat?
And Amazon and Volkswagen are backing them? So what? Amazon has a history of investing in companies that go nowhere. And VW is, well, VW. They're still trying to shake off the Dieselgate scandal.
So, Are We Buying the Dip?
Look, I ain't your financial advisor. I'm just a guy with an opinion. And my opinion is that Rivian is a house of cards built on hype and hope. They might pull off a miracle. They might become the next Tesla. But I wouldn't bet my rent money on it.
