Title: HIMS Stock: Can Hims & Hers Deliver Profits or Just Promises?
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is gearing up to release its Q3 earnings, and the options market is pricing in a potential swing of nearly 15%. That's a modestly higher expectation than their average post-earnings volatility over the last year (around 13.35%), which tells you right away that something is in the air. The question isn't just if they'll move, but which way. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) to Report Q3 Earnings on November 3. Option Traders Expect a 14.94% Move
Growth vs. Reality: The HIMS Dilemma
Wall Street anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09, a stark drop from the $0.32 reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue, however, is projected to jump about 44.5%, landing around $580.24 million. So, growth is up, but profits are… down? That discrepancy alone should make any investor pause. Are they spending too much to acquire those new customers? Or are the margins on those new services razor thin?
The stock is up roughly 87% year-to-date, which sounds impressive. But it's also down over 20% in the last month. Insider selling, the report notes, might be a factor. Smart money getting out before the news? It's a classic red flag.
The company's expansion into new areas like testosterone and menopause support, and international markets, is being touted as a growth driver. But KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson, while initiating coverage with a Hold rating, also points out the potential constraints on margin expansion in 2026. International expansion is rarely cheap, and those new treatment launches need time to ramp up.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Patterson expects HIMS' revenue to climb from $2.35 billion in 2025 to $3.34 billion in 2027, with EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growing from $309 million to $505 million over the same period. That's a pretty rosy picture, but it also assumes they can navigate intense competition, regulatory scrutiny, and tough comparisons through Q1 2026. Those "tough comparisons" are due to previous GLP-1 shortages. Are they really expecting to maintain that level of growth once the market normalizes?
The AI Verdict: A Cautionary Tale
Even TipRanks' AI Analyst is sitting on the fence, assigning a Neutral rating with a price target of $47. The AI highlights solid financial performance and positive earnings call insights, but flags bearish momentum in technical analysis, a high P/E ratio, high leverage, and cash flow issues. It's like the AI is saying, "The engine is strong, but the chassis is about to fall apart."
I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and this particular combination of factors is unusual. The market is pricing in a big move, analysts are cautiously optimistic (but also highlighting significant risks), and even the AI can't make up its mind. It's a perfect storm of uncertainty.
TD Cowen analyst Jonna Kim reiterated a Hold rating with a price target of $48. She remains sidelined, citing decelerating growth and tougher comparisons ahead. Kim believes that compounded GLP-1 demand remains solid, though slowing compared to the first half of 2025. However, the core hims.com business is moderating. Kim expects the company to report Q3 EPS in line with the Street’s estimate, with full-year guidance reiterated.
Is This Just Another Overhyped Telehealth Play?
HIMS has a Hold consensus rating from Wall Street, based on a mix of Holds, Buys, and Sells. The average price target suggests a small upside, but those targets were likely set before the recent stock decline.
The rollout of new GLP-1 "microdosing treatments" is a gamble. Will it be a sustainable revenue stream, or just another flash in the pan driven by hype? Are they going to get hammered by regulators for off-label use? (The legal risks are real.)
The company claims 2.4 million subscribers, a solid base. But how many are active? How many are profitable? Subscriber numbers alone don't pay the bills. The real question is customer acquisition cost versus lifetime value. If they're spending $100 to acquire a customer who only spends $50, that's not a growth story; it's a slow-motion train wreck.
