Alright, let's cut the fluff. Everyone's buzzing about crypto stocks, and these articles are pushing IREN and Coinbase as the golden tickets. Let's see if the numbers back up the hype, specifically for IREN.
The AI Pivot: More Than Just Hype?
The narrative is clear: IREN, a crypto miner, is now an AI play. Article one touts their transition to AI data centers, securing deals with the big boys like Alphabet and Meta. IREN Stock News: Microsoft Signs $9.7B AI Cloud Deal With Bitcoin Mining Stalwart shouts about Microsoft signing a $9.7 billion AI cloud deal. Shares soaring, the whole shebang. But let's dig deeper than the press releases.
IREN boasts 810 megawatts of data center capacity and nearly 3 gigawatts of contracted, grid-connected power. The article claims those 3 gigawatts can translate into billions of dollars, based on "previous deals." Okay, but which previous deals? And what were the specific terms? That's the kind of detail that separates speculation from informed investment.
Nebius (NBIS) – a company I'm not familiar with – secured a $17.4 billion deal with Microsoft for a 300-megawatt data center. IREN will soon have enough energy to support 10 of those deals, we're told. If the deals get pricier due to energy bottlenecks, even better for IREN. All sounds great...in theory.
Here's the catch: IREN currently makes most of its revenue from Bitcoin mining. They project significant growth for their cloud segment. In August, they estimated $200 million to $250 million in annual recurring cloud revenue by year-end. Then, a month later, they revised that to over $500 million by the end of Q1 2026. That's a quarter-over-quarter doubling. (Or, to be precise, more than a doubling).
This projected surge suggests strong demand, the article argues. Maybe. Or maybe it suggests overly optimistic forecasting. What changed in that one month to justify such a drastic revision? I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and that kind of jump is unusual.
The Microsoft Deal: Parsing the Numbers
The real news seems to be the Microsoft deal. Article two specifies it's a $9.7 billion purchase agreement for AI cloud capacity. IREN will buy $5.8 billion worth of GPUs from Dell and expects nearly $1.9 billion in annualized revenue.
Wait a second. $9.7 billion deal, but only $1.9 billion in annual revenue? That implies the deal is structured to ramp up over those five years or that Microsoft isn't paying out the full amount immediately. The article doesn't clarify.
And here's where my skepticism flares. A 30% jump in premarket trading, fueled by a 500% rally this year? That sounds like speculative exuberance, not a rational response to a long-term infrastructure deal. The article notes IREN joins peers like CoreWeave and Crusoe in this AI pivot. Are those companies seeing similar gains? What are their actual revenue multiples compared to their market caps? These are the questions that need answering.
The piece frames IREN's transformation as a strategic move, bridging blockchain and AI. Microsoft is leasing contracts to meet surging demand for Azure AI services amid a GPU shortage. All logical. But are they overpaying due to that shortage? What happens when the GPU supply catches up?
The Fine Print Matters
Ultimately, the IREN story boils down to this: a Bitcoin miner betting big on AI. The Microsoft deal is a major validation, no doubt. But the devil's in the details of that deal, and the projections need to be stress-tested against actual performance. The market is pricing in a best-case scenario, and that always makes me nervous.
